Global markets trends, inflation, release of industrial output data and quarterly earnings will dictate movement of the equity benchmarks this week, analysts said, adding that volatility might continue amid slew of announcements of macroeconomic data at the global level too. Moreover, foreign fund movement, crude oil prices and trend in rupee would also act as major drivers for the equity market, they added. "The direction of global equity markets along with movement in dollar index and crude oil prices will continue to dominate while inflation numbers of the USA on May 11 and inflation and IIP numbers of India on May 12 will also cause volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Vegetable, fruit prices to be on the rise over weak supply, crop damage
India has put curbs on wheat exports through the government route, starting November last year. This comes amid a surge in domestic prices of the cereal. In December, India exported 391 tonnes of wheat to Bangladesh and Bhutan. In November 2022, it had exported 375 tonnes of wheat only to Bhutan.
Do you agree? Do you believe smaller cities are the hardest hit as far as inflation is concerned? Or do you feel this is one of those baseless economic exercises which will hold no water?
India's August industrial output rose just 0.4 per cent compared with 2.4 per cent estimated in a Reuters poll.
A careful reading of the national income accounts suggests that after a strong recovery from the pandemic, there has been a significant ebbing of dynamism over the last three quarters to more modest levels recently, note Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
Inflation moderates, but a rate cut is unlikely.
Two-wheeler exports from India fell by 17.8 per cent to 3.65 million units in 2022-23 (FY23), according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) on Thursday. This decline is due to a rise in global inflation and the weakening of economies and currencies in key export markets of Africa, Latin America (LatAm), and South Asia. In contrast to FY23, two-wheeler exports from India jumped 35.4 per cent to 4.44 million units in 2021-22 (FY22).
In April, RBI had projected retail inflation to be around 5 per cent.
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday cautioned that continued uncertainty over monsoon could stoke food inflation, but expressed the hope that government policies will improve supplies in the coming months.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
The government on Tuesday announced a Rs 200 per cylinder cut in prices of domestic cooking gas as it looked to counter the cheaper LPG promise of the Congress in upcoming assembly elections in states like Madhya Pradesh.
'Understand how wedding expenses fit into your overall financial situation.' 'Evaluate how different levels of spending will impact other goals like retirement, travel, or housing.'
Food prices rose 8.64 per cent year-on-year last month, slower than an annual rise of 9.90 per cent in March.
The size of Reserve Bank's balance sheet increased by 11.08 per cent to Rs 70.47 lakh crore as on March 2024, leading to the highest-ever dividend payout to the government, according to the central bank's annual report. In actual terms, the increase was Rs 7,02,946.97 crore over Rs 63.45 lakh crore as on March 2023.
Inflation in the 'fuel and power' basket in December slumped to 8.38 per cent, nearly half of 16.28 per cent.
After a delayed start, the monsoon is advancing steadily.
Raghuram Rajan remains focused on a long-term inflation target of 4 percent.
Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Chief economic adviser to the finance ministry Arvind Virmani on Wednesday said the retail price-based inflation, which is ruling above the wholesale price index, will come down with a lag but would not fall as much as the rate of rise in wholesale prices is falling.
The Consumer Price Index hit the lowest in six months in March at 4.83 per cent.
Higher prices are burdening household budgets and threatening the margins of leading manufacturers.
'Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal once told me that if onion prices rise we will face the flak for it across India.' 'What can farmers expect from a government which talks like a trader and only believes in (electoral) profit and loss?'
Rate cuts are unlikely to be aggressive, in our view.
Inflation in rural and urban areas in July was 8.45 per cent and 7.42 per cent, respectively.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the decision to tweak policy rates was not in his hand as he himself is driven by the situation on the ground. In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent. Prior to it, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was on a rate hiking spree, raising the repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022.
For protein rich items such as meat and fish, eggs as well as milk and products, the inflation in May slowed compared to last month
The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was (-)4.54% in Sep.
Last week, the Consumer Price Index-based inflation for the month had contracted to 4.4 per cent.
He also affirmed that over time, as the government finances improve, the SLR will be brought down further.
In October, CPI inflation was 5 per cent.
Monetary Policy- Easing expected to happen later this financial year.
Policymakers have been grappling with high prices for food staples such as onions and potatoes even after the central bank raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point in each of its previous two reviews.
Subdued prices of vegetables, cereals and dairy products pushed down retail inflation to a three-month low of 8.28 per cent in May.
Inflation in food articles inched up to 0.69 per cent in September.
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
Consider a combination of a base policy and a super top-up policy.
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